🔥 Trending Canadian Travel to the U.S. Shows Modest Increase

Canadian travel to the United States has shown a complex and fluctuating pattern in recent years, marked by both declines and recent upticks, though overall numbers remain below pre-2024 levels.

Recent Trends in Canadian Travel to the U.S.

After a prolonged period of decline, there are signs of a rebound in Canadian travel to the United States.

The 15-Month Decline

Starting in early 2025, travel trends among Canadian residents shifted, with a noticeable decrease in trips to the U.S. ³. This downturn was attributed to political and economic tensions, including trade disputes and strong rhetoric from U.S. leadership, which negatively impacted travel sentiment ².

Statistics Canada data confirmed this trend, indicating a 15-month consecutive decline in year-over-year trips by Canadian residents to the U.S. ³⁵. For instance, in March 2026, Canadian residents returned from 2.6 million trips to the United States, representing a 6.4% decrease from March 2025 ³.

Recent Upticks and Contributing Factors

Despite the earlier slump, recent data suggests a shift.

• June 2026 Increase: Preliminary figures for June 2026 show that Canadian return trips from the United States rose by 3.2% to 1.7 million compared to a year earlier ¹. This marks the third consecutive month of year-over-year increases ¹.
• Second Monthly Increase: This increase in June 2026 follows another monthly rise, making it the second monthly increase in Canadian travel to the U.S. since January 2025 ⁶.
• "Base-Year Effect": Statistics Canada noted that the increase in June 2026 was partly due to a "base-year effect," a statistical distortion because visitation in 2025 was unusually low ⁸. This means while there's an increase, it's relative to a very low previous year.

Comparison to Pre-2024 Levels

Even with these recent increases, the overall number of Canadian visitors to the U.S. remains significantly below the levels observed before 2024 ¹⁸. This indicates that while the immediate downward trend may be reversing, a full recovery to pre-pandemic or pre-tension levels has not yet occurred.

Broader Context of Canadian Travel

It's important to consider these U.S.-specific trends within the broader context of Canadian international travel.

• Air Travel to U.S. vs. Overseas: In July 2025, Canadian-resident return trips by air from the United States decreased by 16.2% compared to the same month in the previous year, totaling 563,500 trips. In contrast, Canadian-resident return trips by air from overseas countries increased by 8.9% in the same period, reaching 1.0 million trips ⁷. This suggests a potential shift in Canadian travel preferences towards non-U.S. international destinations.
• U.S. Visitors to Canada: While Canadian travel to the U.S. has seen declines, new figures from Statistics Canada indicate that American visits to Canada have been rising ⁴. This creates an interesting dynamic in cross-border travel.

In summary, Canadian travel to the U.S. experienced a significant and prolonged decline through 2025 and into early 2026, influenced by political and economic factors. While there have been recent increases in monthly figures, particularly in June 2026, these are partly due to comparison with low 2025 numbers, and overall travel volumes have not yet returned to levels seen before 2024.