🔥 Trending India Monsoon Rainfall Forecast: What to Expect in July After a Dry June

India's July 2026 Monsoon Rainfall Forecast: Below Normal Expectations Amidst El Niño Concerns

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall across most parts of India for July 2026 ⁵. This outlook follows a significantly dry June, which was the country's fifth-driest June since 1901, with a 39% rainfall deficit ⁷. The primary factor contributing to this below-normal forecast is the strengthening El Niño phenomenon over the equatorial Pacific ³⁷.

Key Forecast Details for July 2026

• Overall Rainfall Expectation: The IMD predicts July rainfall to be 94% of the long-period average (LPA) ⁵. The long-term average for July rainfall is approximately 28 centimeters ⁶.
• El Niño Influence: The developing El Niño is expected to tighten its grip, leading to reduced precipitation ⁷. This climate pattern typically brings drier conditions to the Indian subcontinent.
• Regional Variations: While the national outlook is below normal, some regions are still expected to receive adequate rainfall ³⁵:
• Parts of northwest India are projected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall ⁵.
• Northeast and east-central India are also likely to experience normal to above-normal precipitation ⁵.
• The eastern peninsular region is expected to see normal to above-normal rainfall ⁵.
• Impact on Agriculture: The below-normal July rainfall, especially after a dry June, poses a risk to the Kharif crop outlook ⁶. Kharif sowing has already been affected, with a reported 23% decrease ³. Delayed crop planting across large parts of the country is a significant concern ⁶.
• Water Reservoirs: Reduced rainfall could also impact water reservoir levels, which are crucial for irrigation and other needs ³.

Context of the Monsoon Season

The monsoon season typically runs from June to September, with July being the wettest month ⁶. The performance of the monsoon is critical for India's agricultural sector, which heavily relies on seasonal rains. A below-normal July could exacerbate the challenges faced by farmers, particularly those dependent on rain-fed agriculture.

The IMD regularly updates its rainfall information, providing daily and weekly data for various states and districts ¹. These forecasts are subject to correction as new data becomes available ⁴.